Just eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or the reason for the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. As the in-form star drilled in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a rather hard question to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, while the wins have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa registered an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a side which has strung together 10 in a row, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping Rogers to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened against the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the upright from a wide position. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a title charge and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. As Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.
